From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.4 (2020-01-24) on polar.synack.me X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.9 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,FREEMAIL_FROM autolearn=unavailable autolearn_force=no version=3.4.4 X-Received: by 2002:a37:70c5:: with SMTP id l188mr5053213qkc.396.1590702331720; Thu, 28 May 2020 14:45:31 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 2002:a9d:5511:: with SMTP id l17mr3822964oth.81.1590702331433; Thu, 28 May 2020 14:45:31 -0700 (PDT) Path: eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!aioe.org!peer01.ams4!peer.am4.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!tr2.eu1.usenetexpress.com!feeder.usenetexpress.com!tr3.iad1.usenetexpress.com!border1.nntp.dca1.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail Newsgroups: comp.lang.ada Date: Thu, 28 May 2020 14:45:31 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: Complaints-To: groups-abuse@google.com Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=47.185.215.60; posting-account=zwxLlwoAAAChLBU7oraRzNDnqQYkYbpo NNTP-Posting-Host: 47.185.215.60 References: User-Agent: G2/1.0 MIME-Version: 1.0 Message-ID: <299b2c3d-058e-459c-a289-a4a1616c05e9@googlegroups.com> Subject: Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code From: Optikos Injection-Date: Thu, 28 May 2020 21:45:31 +0000 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-Received-Bytes: 4640 X-Received-Body-CRC: 4037902696 Xref: reader01.eternal-september.org comp.lang.ada:58810 Date: 2020-05-28T14:45:31-07:00 List-Id: On Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 12:01:05 AM UTC-5, Anatoly Chernyshev wrote: > "Clowns will dominate the pandemic-forecasting domain..." >=20 > I like that one... >=20 > Oh dear, you've lured me out. As a person who just published a Covid-19 f= orecasting model programmed > in Ada, I can't stay away from this heated conversation. >=20 > There are so many concerns raised about scientists doing their rookie pro= gramming without resorting to > professionals, so I don't even know where to start. >=20 > First of all, we are curious bunch, and learning something new (like prog= ramming) is always fun. Second, > in scientific programming the chance that someone in power will lock down= a country based on the > output of your program is negligible (certainly it wasn't on the radars 1= 3 years ago). Third, fourth...=20 >=20 > To make a long story short, for the experiment's sake, is there anyone wi= lling to review my code? It's not > a marvel of Ada programming, it just works. >=20 > Yet it's quite short - I went from the model's formulation, programming, = testing, data acquisition, > manuscript writeup in a matter of a fortnight. >=20 > If the review is useful, in terms that it helps to produce more accurate = forecasts or identifies a drastic > flaw in the code, I would be more than happy to do a revised version of t= he manuscript in a coauthorship > with the reviewer(s). Or even go for a peer-reviewed publication when dus= t settles. >=20 > The model forecasts are here: > April 10th: https://xph.co.nz/temp/album/ > May 12th: https://xph.co.nz/temp/album2005/ > Some technical details: https://xph.co.nz/index.php/covid-19-progression-= model/ > The model description: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03= .20052985v1 >=20 > This is not an epidemiology-based model (so you don't have to be one). Ra= ther, it's a phenomenological > one. It can predict what will happen, but can't (yet) say why this will h= appen. A contribution on the model > is welcomed too. >=20 > The code is not published (since I didn't expect anyone would care), but = I'll do it once there's interest. >=20 > If keen, please write to me directly: a~at~xph~dot~co~dot~nz >=20 > Anatoly In regards to a few participants on this thread other than Anatoly: https://twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1250462246456578049?ref_src=3Dtws= rc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1250462246456578049 Another non-Ferguson modeler of notoriety has arisen, as linked above: Isa= ac ben-Israel. Ben-Isreal is a mathematician instead of an MD, but these m= odels are the intersection of 3 domains of knowledge: epidemiology, mathem= atical modeling, and computer programming. Experts from all 3 fields need = to come together (or grind against each other competitively as cordial gent= lemen) to arrive at accurately-predictive forecasts; neither any one person= nor any one discipline owns the whole topic lock stock & barrel. Science = is best when well-reasoned factions dissent against each other, not when 97= % of scientists all align to vociferously defend each other as a mutual-adm= iration-society brotherhood(-or-political-party) that is to not be question= ed by the unwashed masses.=20