From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.4 (2020-01-24) on polar.synack.me X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-0.9 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,FORGED_GMAIL_RCVD, FREEMAIL_FROM autolearn=no autolearn_force=no version=3.4.4 X-Received: by 2002:ac8:f94:: with SMTP id b20mr7047648qtk.291.1589605263792; Fri, 15 May 2020 22:01:03 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 2002:a9d:6647:: with SMTP id q7mr1325283otm.329.1589605263464; Fri, 15 May 2020 22:01:03 -0700 (PDT) Path: eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!news.gegeweb.eu!gegeweb.org!usenet-fr.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail Newsgroups: comp.lang.ada Date: Fri, 15 May 2020 22:01:03 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: Complaints-To: groups-abuse@google.com Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=2407:7000:9004:3e40:25d2:4b85:877b:12a9; posting-account=g6PEmwoAAADhFsmVm6Epjviaw4MLU0b5 NNTP-Posting-Host: 2407:7000:9004:3e40:25d2:4b85:877b:12a9 References: User-Agent: G2/1.0 MIME-Version: 1.0 Message-ID: Subject: Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code From: Anatoly Chernyshev Injection-Date: Sat, 16 May 2020 05:01:03 +0000 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Xref: reader01.eternal-september.org comp.lang.ada:58701 Date: 2020-05-15T22:01:03-07:00 List-Id: "Clowns will dominate the pandemic-forecasting domain..." I like that one... Oh dear, you've lured me out. As a person who just published a Covid-19 for= ecasting model programmed in Ada, I can't stay away from this heated conver= sation. There are so many concerns raised about scientists doing their rookie progr= amming without resorting to professionals, so I don't even know where to st= art. First of all, we are curious bunch, and learning something new (like progra= mming) is always fun. Second, in scientific programming the chance that som= eone in power will lock down a country based on the output of your program = is negligible (certainly it wasn't on the radars 13 years ago). Third, four= th...=20 To make a long story short, for the experiment's sake, is there anyone will= ing to review my code? It's not a marvel of Ada programming, it just works. Yet it's quite short - I went from the model's formulation, programming, te= sting, data acquisition, manuscript writeup in a matter of a fortnight. If the review is useful, in terms that it helps to produce more accurate fo= recasts or identifies a drastic flaw in the code, I would be more than happ= y to do a revised version of the manuscript in a coauthorship with the revi= ewer(s). Or even go for a peer-reviewed publication when dust settles. The model forecasts are here: April 10th: https://xph.co.nz/temp/album/ May 12th: https://xph.co.nz/temp/album2005/ Some technical details: https://xph.co.nz/index.php/covid-19-progression-mo= del/ The model description: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.2= 0052985v1 This is not an epidemiology-based model (so you don't have to be one). Rath= er, it's a phenomenological one. It can predict what will happen, but can't= (yet) say why this will happen. A contribution on the model is welcomed to= o. The code is not published (since I didn't expect anyone would care), but I'= ll do it once there's interest. If keen, please write to me directly: a~at~xph~dot~co~dot~nz Anatoly