From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.4 (2020-01-24) on polar.synack.me X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.9 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,FREEMAIL_FROM autolearn=unavailable autolearn_force=no version=3.4.4 X-Received: by 2002:aed:3242:: with SMTP id y60mr11910427qtd.127.1589751947163; Sun, 17 May 2020 14:45:47 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 2002:aca:e057:: with SMTP id x84mr8413544oig.119.1589751946822; Sun, 17 May 2020 14:45:46 -0700 (PDT) Path: eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!feeder5.feed.usenet.farm!feed.usenet.farm!tr2.eu1.usenetexpress.com!feeder.usenetexpress.com!tr2.iad1.usenetexpress.com!border1.nntp.dca1.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail Newsgroups: comp.lang.ada Date: Sun, 17 May 2020 14:45:46 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: Complaints-To: groups-abuse@google.com Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=47.185.215.60; posting-account=zwxLlwoAAAChLBU7oraRzNDnqQYkYbpo NNTP-Posting-Host: 47.185.215.60 References: <3baf4a73-aae7-4f99-9786-ba5153118c81@googlegroups.com> <1ab5756b-81d8-4b2f-80ff-feeca5270903@googlegroups.com> <01871512-1aa7-4672-9642-6feb659a9d60@googlegroups.com> User-Agent: G2/1.0 MIME-Version: 1.0 Message-ID: Subject: Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code From: Optikos Injection-Date: Sun, 17 May 2020 21:45:47 +0000 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Xref: reader01.eternal-september.org comp.lang.ada:58722 Date: 2020-05-17T14:45:46-07:00 List-Id: On Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 4:20:07 PM UTC-5, Simon Wright wrote: > Optikos writes: >=20 > > On Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 1:00:10 PM UTC-5, Simon Wright wrote: > >> Optikos writes: > >>=20 > >> > Given that the Ferguson model is repeatedly overestimating calamity > >> > for multiple epidemics/pandemics for over a decade now > >>=20 > >> Can you point us to the evidence for this? (again, if necessary) > > > > Yes, I'd be glad to. (But I am not endorsing any of this content. I > > am merely saying that it should be taken as input to debate Anatoly's > > source code and any other Ada pandemic forecasting models that might > > arise, as such criticisms in the popular press or social-critique > > press serve as some degree of expectations that society places upon > > software modeling.) > > > > repeated from the thread above: > > https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-sh= ould-be-asked/amp > > > > and links therein. >=20 > First reactions: Not a huge fan of the Spectator, and certainly not of > that journalist who "is The Spectator's gossip columnist, serving up the > latest tittle tattle from Westminster and beyond". Hence why I overtly stated =E2=80=9Cand links therein=E2=80=9D. Are you li= kewise not a fan of The Telegraph and its Katherine Rushton and Daniel Fagg= o? paywalled: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinc= ed-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised somewhat more excerpts from The Telegraph article: https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/04/01/uk-government-lockdown-policy-m= ay-be-based-on-dodgy-modelling Are you likewise not a fan of Breitbart and its James Delingpole? Here is a linked-therein critique of Ferguson's model dating back to foot-&= -mouth disease era: https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/portal/files/14288330/Use_and_abuse_of_mathem= atical_models_an_illustration_from_the_2001_foot_and_mouth_disease_epidemic= _in_the_United_Kingdom.pdf Despite lack of fandom, at their core the main thrust of these articles doe= s not seem heavy-handed propagandistic or hardline politicizing of the topi= c. At their core, they seem to quoting excerpts of upstream work and sayin= g these critiques exist and here is the link to the upstream work at which = the interested reader may read further. Perhaps ad hominem against the gos= sip columnist is not especially warranted in this case in a don't-kill-the-= messenger moral of the story. Again I reiterate from a prior reply above, these writings in the popular p= ress and the critical-thinking press set a degree of expectation for an Ada= model of pandemic forecasting to perhaps live up to, if they have merit.