From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.4 (2020-01-24) on polar.synack.me X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.9 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00 autolearn=unavailable autolearn_force=no version=3.4.4 Path: eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!news.uzoreto.com!fu-berlin.de!uni-berlin.de!individual.net!not-for-mail From: Niklas Holsti Newsgroups: comp.lang.ada Subject: Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code Date: Wed, 13 May 2020 00:54:40 +0300 Organization: Tidorum Ltd Message-ID: References: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Trace: individual.net yvlNkVhH50/SbCnK9kV7sQkI+Q3iA82ttVKKMKpzcXd8kB1FsV Cancel-Lock: sha1:5xDJZM28yHD+uwCOQ7QMHbKUEPs= User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10.14; rv:68.0) Gecko/20100101 Thunderbird/68.5.0 In-Reply-To: Content-Language: en-US Xref: reader01.eternal-september.org comp.lang.ada:58664 Date: 2020-05-13T00:54:40+03:00 List-Id: On 2020-05-12 23:53, Dmitry A. Kazakov wrote: > On 2020-05-12 22:11, Niklas Holsti wrote: [snip] >> The simulation is intentionally stochastic and is meant to be executed >> multiple times to give an ensemble of scenarios. > > I did not read the blog etc, but methodologically the approach, as I > understand it from your description, is questionable. > > In order to get a statistically relevant sample of simulations one > should run lots of them and likely have access to high quality random > numbers to avoid running into some systematic trends. Run lots of them, yes, and that was the approach, as I understood it. I don't know the quality of the PRNs used, and I don't know enough about such simulations to judge how good PRNs are needed. Intuitively I would guess that PRN quality would have a much smaller effect than errors in the inputs and assumptions, which concern the average behaviour of people and the average risk of virus transmission in certain locations and encounters. >> Popular and professional scientific journals and magazines have been >> warning for years and decades about future flu-like pandemics which >> could markedly reduce (or "normalize") the planet's population of Homo >> Sapiens. > > Could be theological journals as well. There is little scientific in > such predictions in either direction of the outcome. They don't have to be very scientific -- common sense and historical precedent, also from other over-populous species (rabbits in Australia, say) suggest the same. >> Suppose, for example, that HIV had been as infective as the common flu... > > Then it would adapt to the host as quickly as the common flu did. The > pace of adaptation directly depends on the number of replications which > is proportional to the contagiousness. HIV and AIDS kill *slowly*. Plenty of time for infection to spread, before adaptation or immunity comes about. -- Niklas Holsti niklas holsti tidorum fi . @ .