Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code

[Optikos <ZUERCHER_Andreas@outlook.com>]

On Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 10:41:39 AM UTC-5, Niklas Holsti wrote:
> On 2020-05-17 2:54, Optikos wrote:
> > On Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 5:31:17 PM UTC-5, Niklas Holsti wrote:
> >> On 2020-05-11 21:49, Rick Newbie wrote:
> >>> This link is probably not reported in the MSM very much but I think it's
> >>> relevant. Not that I believe that Ada would have magically made
> >>> everything better, but to base the decision to destroy the Western
> >>> economies on code written in the C language that isn't even commented is
> >>> somewhat out of dystopian fantasy. There's a reason C is not used in
> >>> safety critical applications.
> >>> I want to share this article here before it gets buried in the memory hole
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> https://chrisvoncsefalvay.com/2020/05/09/imperial-covid-model/
> >>
> >> A post on comp.risks points to a different opinion, which includes a
> >> discussion of why the above "review" is mistaken:
> >>
> >>   
> >> https://philbull.wordpress.com/2020/05/10/why-you-can-ignore-reviews-of-scientific-code-by-commercial-software-developers/amp/
> >>
> >> Some of the points made were already made in the comp.lang.ada
> >> discussion, but there are also others.
> > 
> > (sigh) Code smells in the source code are code smells in the source
> > code itself, regardless of whomever the speaker is and regardless of
> > whichever imprimatur of letters do or don't follow their name.
> So what? Smelly code can be correct, too.
> 
> > Niklas, you really are defending some sort of elite priesthood that
> > lesser unwashed masses shall be unworthy to critique.  ... Hopefully
> > your URLs will spark greater productive debate instead of stifle it.
> 
> Ferguson's code can be discussed from three aspects:

Correction:  at least these 3 aspects.  There may be more that occur to other commenters.

> 1. Whether the code is readable, well documented, well modularized, 
> etc., that is, whether the code is sweet-smelling. It seems pointless to 
> discuss, in comp.lang.ada, these issues for a specific program, unless 
> the program's properties are taken as examples of some general things, 
> for example Ada-vs-C differences. It also seems pointless to discuss 
> here

Despite your best efforts to side track the issue, we are trying to discuss topics that would be applicable to Anatoly's new Ada model, so that his doesn't have the same defects as Ferguson's.

> the practices of scientific programming in general, unless some 
> issues relevant to Ada can be found there.
> 
> 2. Whether the code correctly implements the epidemiological models and 
> the particular assumptions for covid-19 that Ferguson's group has made. 
> This we discussed. Some bugs in the program have been found, but they 
> appear not to have large impact on the results, at least not on the 
> statistical results. This is clearly relevant to comp.lang.ada, as 
> possibly illuminating the bug-resistance properties of C/C++ and Ada. 
> However, the examples of bugs that were discussed could as well have 
> happened in Ada as in C or C++, unless one assumes that Ada programmers 
> are generally more careful than C/C++ programmers.

We don't need to discuss never-ending wispy cloud formations of what-if Ada code in our imaginations anymore.  We have Anatoly's extant source code to review and suggest improvements upon.  

> 3. Whether the epidemiological models and assumptions of Ferguson's 
> group are correct

You keep basing so many of your pronouncements on a one-size-fits-all monolithic definition of correctness (and that Ferguson is definitely in possession of that One True And Only CorrectnessⓇ).  The entire point of having so many different drastically-different (and a few similar) software designs & implementations of hurricane models is that there are different horses bred for optimality on different courses.  Having a plethora of different models eventually for pandemics (e.g., Ferguson C, GitHub Ferguson C++, Anatoly Ada, anti-Ferguson, quasi-Ferguson, and so forth) would permit seeing where they all substantially overlap in their prediction versus what different characteristics the outliers have.  Once those characteristics of outliers are well-understood, one can see whether the current storm or the current pandemic actually is exhibiting those assumptions & characteristics (and thus make the outlier the spot-on predictor as the cream of the crop) versus not exhibiting those assumptions & characteristics (and thus damning the outlier to tin-foil hat status to ignore it for this pandemic).

> for SARS-COV-2 and covid-19, and whether the 
> lock-downs are good or bad. This is entirely irrelevant to 
> comp.lang.ada, but it seemed to be what you wanted to discuss. A deep 
> sigh from me, too.

If we can belabor the picayune details of unbounded string or some such detail for weeks within one Ada library, then we can discuss all sorts of aspects of Anatoly's source code, design, etc in his extant Ada source code if for no other reason than for public relations promotion of Ada in the news.

As alluded to in my reply to #3 above, I believe that there is a 4th avenue of exporation here.
4. Given that the Ferguson model is repeatedly overestimating calamity for multiple epidemics/pandemics for over a decade now, there must be some sort of incompleteness (if not full-fledged incorrectness/defect) in Ferguson's model that inhibits national & international leaders from tuning it to the situation to produce far more realistic forecasts that match the pandemic's actual rate of spread and fatality rate that eventually plays out in reality.  If all the hurricane models keep predicting that all of them will be category 5 hitting Fargo, North Dakota, then perhaps just perhaps despite meeting every definition of some sort of very defensible Holsti-correctness, that something is amiss in the hurricane model(s).  Likewise, having both the GitHub rework as variant competitor and Anatoly's as rethink competitor, the world then has the first 2 of an eventual plethora of pandemic-forecast models.  Perhaps one of them will more closely match as forecast how reality actually turned out for H3N1, H1N1, foot-&-mouth, and Mad Cow.  This is a chance for Anatoly's to come at the problem from a somewhat different perspective instead of being merely a verbatim transliteration of Ferguson's uncouth C code into more erudite Ada.

And oops, both of the drastically different Ferguson uncouth C design & code (or GitHub C++ evolution thereof) and Anatoly's erudite Ada design & code might meet 2 rather different definitions of being very-defensible Holti-correct.  Egads!
Q: But isn't that precisely what having a plethora of different hurricane/pandemic forecasting software packages is all about?
A: Multiple perspectives of correctness under differing parameters/assumptions/theories/schools-of-thought/branches-of-science.