From: "Dmitry A. Kazakov" <mailbox@dmitry-kazakov.de>
Subject: Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code
Date: Tue, 12 May 2020 22:53:17 +0200
Date: 2020-05-12T22:53:17+02:00 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <r9f2br$566$1@gioia.aioe.org> (raw)
In-Reply-To: hi0e7sFhiuvU1@mid.individual.net
On 2020-05-12 22:11, Niklas Holsti wrote:
> The blog's complaints about non-determinism and statistics are mistaken.
Similar to common misunderstanding of the nature of floating-point
computations. One could have non-deterministic floating-point unit which
would still be usable and correct. Musings about
determinism/non-determinism is rubbish.
> The simulation is intentionally stochastic and is meant to be executed
> multiple times to give an ensemble of scenarios.
I did not read the blog etc, but methodologically the approach, as I
understand it from your description, is questionable.
In order to get a statistically relevant sample of simulations one
should run lots of them and likely have access to high quality random
numbers to avoid running into some systematic trends.
> What catastrophe? It seems some bugs were found in the program, which
> possibly had minor effects on the predictions -- probably much smaller
> effects than the inevitable errors in the input parameters and
> assumptions. The horrific predictions from the program pushed
> governments to take strong actions to stop the spread of the virus, and
> these seem to have worked in the most affected places like New York state.
>
> Popular and professional scientific journals and magazines have been
> warning for years and decades about future flu-like pandemics which
> could markedly reduce (or "normalize") the planet's population of Homo
> Sapiens.
Could be theological journals as well. There is little scientific in
such predictions in either direction of the outcome.
> Suppose, for example, that HIV had been as infective as the
> common flu...
Then it would adapt to the host as quickly as the common flu did. The
pace of adaptation directly depends on the number of replications which
is proportional to the contagiousness.
--
Regards,
Dmitry A. Kazakov
http://www.dmitry-kazakov.de
next prev parent reply other threads:[~2020-05-12 20:53 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 71+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
2020-05-11 18:49 Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code Rick Newbie
2020-05-11 20:27 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:12 ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-12 20:11 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 20:53 ` Dmitry A. Kazakov [this message]
2020-05-12 21:54 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 22:15 ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 11:07 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 13:23 ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 13:45 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 14:58 ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 15:31 ` Dmitry A. Kazakov
2020-05-13 15:48 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:45 ` gautier_niouzes
2020-05-12 15:56 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:55 ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-12 19:16 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 21:27 ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-12 22:20 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 22:39 ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-13 9:36 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 13:52 ` Optikos
2020-05-13 14:05 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 18:58 ` Optikos
2020-05-13 20:29 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 21:02 ` Optikos
2020-05-13 21:48 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 22:13 ` Optikos
2020-05-13 9:54 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 0:25 ` Olivier Henley
2020-05-15 13:23 ` Optikos
2020-05-16 5:01 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-05-28 21:45 ` Optikos
2020-06-11 17:28 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 17:36 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 22:43 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-12 12:10 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 12:34 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-12 17:36 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-21 9:18 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-22 13:36 ` Olivier Henley
2020-05-16 22:31 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-16 23:54 ` Optikos
2020-05-17 15:41 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-17 17:38 ` Optikos
2020-05-17 18:00 ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 20:56 ` Optikos
2020-05-17 21:20 ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 21:45 ` Optikos
2020-05-18 7:34 ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 19:20 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-17 21:30 ` Optikos
2020-05-24 21:04 ` Bob Goddard
2020-05-31 15:01 ` Azathoth Hastur
2020-06-09 6:30 ` gautier_niouzes
2020-06-11 15:35 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 15:49 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 18:41 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 19:58 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 20:41 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 20:47 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 21:34 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 21:47 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 21:39 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 23:14 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 23:30 ` Jere
2020-06-11 23:55 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 0:07 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 0:42 ` Anh Vo
2020-06-12 11:08 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 7:03 ` gautier_niouzes
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