Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code

[Optikos <ZUERCHER_Andreas@outlook.com>]

On Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 12:01:05 AM UTC-5, Anatoly Chernyshev wrote:
> "Clowns will dominate the pandemic-forecasting domain..."
> 
> I like that one...
> 
> Oh dear, you've lured me out. As a person who just published a Covid-19 forecasting model programmed
> in Ada, I can't stay away from this heated conversation.
> 
> There are so many concerns raised about scientists doing their rookie programming without resorting to
> professionals, so I don't even know where to start.
> 
> First of all, we are curious bunch, and learning something new (like programming) is always fun. Second,
> in scientific programming the chance that someone in power will lock down a country based on the
> output of your program is negligible (certainly it wasn't on the radars 13 years ago). Third, fourth... 
> 
> To make a long story short, for the experiment's sake, is there anyone willing to review my code? It's not
> a marvel of Ada programming, it just works.
> 
> Yet it's quite short - I went from the model's formulation, programming, testing, data acquisition,
> manuscript writeup in a matter of a fortnight.
> 
> If the review is useful, in terms that it helps to produce more accurate forecasts or identifies a drastic
> flaw in the code, I would be more than happy to do a revised version of the manuscript in a coauthorship
> with the reviewer(s). Or even go for a peer-reviewed publication when dust settles.
> 
> The model forecasts are here:
> April 10th: https://xph.co.nz/temp/album/
> May 12th: https://xph.co.nz/temp/album2005/
> Some technical details: https://xph.co.nz/index.php/covid-19-progression-model/
> The model description: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.20052985v1
> 
> This is not an epidemiology-based model (so you don't have to be one). Rather, it's a phenomenological
> one. It can predict what will happen, but can't (yet) say why this will happen. A contribution on the model
> is welcomed too.
> 
> The code is not published (since I didn't expect anyone would care), but I'll do it once there's interest.
> 
> If keen, please write to me directly: a~at~xph~dot~co~dot~nz
> 
> Anatoly

In regards to a few participants on this thread other than Anatoly:

https://twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1250462246456578049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1250462246456578049

Another non-Ferguson modeler of notoriety has arisen, as linked above:  Isaac ben-Israel.  Ben-Isreal is a mathematician instead of an MD, but these models are the intersection of 3 domains of knowledge:  epidemiology, mathematical modeling, and computer programming.  Experts from all 3 fields need to come together (or grind against each other competitively as cordial gentlemen) to arrive at accurately-predictive forecasts; neither any one person nor any one discipline owns the whole topic lock stock & barrel.  Science is best when well-reasoned factions dissent against each other, not when 97% of scientists all align to vociferously defend each other as a mutual-admiration-society brotherhood(-or-political-party) that is to not be questioned by the unwashed masses.