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From: Optikos <ZUERCHER_Andreas@outlook.com>
Subject: Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code
Date: Wed, 13 May 2020 06:52:35 -0700 (PDT)
Date: 2020-05-13T06:52:35-07:00	[thread overview]
Message-ID: <dc070b85-194d-433c-9793-ac895ad93b20@googlegroups.com> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <hi1tccFqpj6U1@mid.individual.net>

On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 at 4:36:15 AM UTC-5, Niklas Holsti wrote:
> On 2020-05-13 1:39, Jeffrey R. Carter wrote:
> > On 5/13/20 12:20 AM, Niklas Holsti wrote:
> >>
> >> I agree that it would be troubling. If you could find that statement, 
> >> it would interest me.
> > 
> > In https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/ it says, 
> > "the code produces critically different results, even for identical 
> > starting seeds and parameters."
> 
> While the review claims that as a general flaw, it then "illustrates" 
> the claim by discussing the two cases I detailed, in particular the 
> unexpected influence of the option controlling how the program "stores 
> data tables". This was eventually traced to a difference in the way the 
> program used the RNG, depending on this option, which then led to 
> different PRN sequences, depending on this option. An error in the 
> program, of course, but not non-determinism.
> 
> For programs that use RNGs to drive simulations, a single extra RNG 
> call, or a single omitted RNG call, will completely change the 
> subsequent PRN sequence. This has no effect on the statistical 
> properties of the results from many runs, but will of course change the 
> results of the particular run in which the change occurs.
> 
> > Initially it was claimed that this was 
> > only true for multiple cores, but later that was retracted: "But 
> > Edinburgh came back and reported that – even in single-threaded mode – 
> > they still see the problem."
> 
> It seems that some users (Edinburgh) reported that the results varied, 
> and reported they were using multi-core mode. The authors of the program 
> (Imperial) replied that result variations are expected in multi-core 
> mode; this was of course a sloppy analysis of the problem, but not an 
> unnatural one. When the users reported that the problem occurs also in 
> single-core mode, depending on the "data table storage" option, the 
> authors found and fixed the error.

On which date did they fix the problem?  Before or after governments acted on the miscalculations?

  reply	other threads:[~2020-05-13 13:52 UTC|newest]

Thread overview: 71+ messages / expand[flat|nested]  mbox.gz  Atom feed  top
2020-05-11 18:49 Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code Rick Newbie
2020-05-11 20:27 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:12   ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-12 20:11     ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 20:53       ` Dmitry A. Kazakov
2020-05-12 21:54         ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 22:15       ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 11:07         ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 13:23           ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 13:45             ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 14:58               ` Rick Newbie
2020-05-13 15:31                 ` Dmitry A. Kazakov
2020-05-13 15:48                   ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:45   ` gautier_niouzes
2020-05-12 15:56     ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-11 21:55   ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-12 19:16     ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 21:27       ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-12 22:20         ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-12 22:39           ` Jeffrey R. Carter
2020-05-13  9:36             ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 13:52               ` Optikos [this message]
2020-05-13 14:05                 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 18:58                   ` Optikos
2020-05-13 20:29                     ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 21:02                       ` Optikos
2020-05-13 21:48                         ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13 22:13                           ` Optikos
2020-05-13  9:54         ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-13  0:25 ` Olivier Henley
2020-05-15 13:23   ` Optikos
2020-05-16  5:01 ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-05-28 21:45   ` Optikos
2020-06-11 17:28   ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 17:36     ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 22:43     ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-12 12:10       ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12 12:34         ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-12 17:36           ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-21  9:18             ` Anatoly Chernyshev
2020-06-22 13:36               ` Olivier Henley
2020-05-16 22:31 ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-16 23:54   ` Optikos
2020-05-17 15:41     ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-17 17:38       ` Optikos
2020-05-17 18:00         ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 20:56           ` Optikos
2020-05-17 21:20             ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 21:45               ` Optikos
2020-05-18  7:34                 ` Simon Wright
2020-05-17 19:20         ` Niklas Holsti
2020-05-17 21:30           ` Optikos
2020-05-24 21:04 ` Bob Goddard
2020-05-31 15:01 ` Azathoth Hastur
2020-06-09  6:30 ` gautier_niouzes
2020-06-11 15:35 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 15:49   ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 18:41     ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 19:58       ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 20:41         ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 20:47           ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 21:34             ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 21:47               ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 21:39             ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-11 23:14               ` Anh Vo
2020-06-11 23:30                 ` Jere
2020-06-11 23:55                   ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12  0:07                 ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12  0:42                   ` Anh Vo
2020-06-12 11:08                     ` Olivier Henley
2020-06-12  7:03   ` gautier_niouzes
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