Re: Not to incite a language war but apparently the Corona lockdown was based on 13 year old undocumented C-Code

[Niklas Holsti <niklas.holsti@tidorum.invalid>]

On 2020-05-12 23:53, Dmitry A. Kazakov wrote:
> On 2020-05-12 22:11, Niklas Holsti wrote:


    [snip]

>> The simulation is intentionally stochastic and is meant to be executed 
>> multiple times to give an ensemble of scenarios.
> 
> I did not read the blog etc, but methodologically the approach, as I 
> understand it from your description, is questionable.
> 
> In order to get a statistically relevant sample of simulations one 
> should run lots of them and likely have access to high quality random 
> numbers to avoid running into some systematic trends.


Run lots of them, yes, and that was the approach, as I understood it. I 
don't know the quality of the PRNs used, and I don't know enough about 
such simulations to judge how good PRNs are needed. Intuitively I would 
guess that PRN quality would have a much smaller effect than errors in 
the inputs and assumptions, which concern the average behaviour of 
people and the average risk of virus transmission in certain locations 
and encounters.

>> Popular and professional scientific journals and magazines have been 
>> warning for years and decades about future flu-like pandemics which 
>> could markedly reduce (or "normalize") the planet's population of Homo 
>> Sapiens.
> 
> Could be theological journals as well. There is little scientific in 
> such predictions in either direction of the outcome.


They don't have to be very scientific -- common sense and historical 
precedent, also from other over-populous species (rabbits in Australia, 
say) suggest the same.

>> Suppose, for example, that HIV had been as infective as the common flu...
> 
> Then it would adapt to the host as quickly as the common flu did. The 
> pace of adaptation directly depends on the number of replications which 
> is proportional to the contagiousness.

HIV and AIDS kill *slowly*. Plenty of time for infection to spread, 
before adaptation or immunity comes about.

-- 
Niklas Holsti
niklas holsti tidorum fi
       .      @       .